Thursday, April 26, 2007
Canada continues to lead G7 in broadband
In October, we last looked at the OECD broadband statistics. The latest stats are out and I would have thought that Canadians should break out the champagne. It is interesting that I read the results so differently from the way Michael Geist at University of Ottawa interprets the same numbers.
The OECD itself states that "Canada continues to lead the G7 group of industrialized countries in broadband penetration." While he acknowledges this triumph, somehow, Professor Geist sees a disturbing trend:
How do we go from leading the G7 to 'becoming a second tier country'? Do you think that we have a little bit of over-reaction? Maybe I'm just a 'glass is half full' kind of guy. Of course, in this case, I think the glass is more than half full.
Professor Geist expresses concern that Canada is near the bottom (second last, in fact) in terms of growth rates for broadband penetration. In reality, a declining rate of growth is a normal behaviour in a market approaching saturation. Look at who is dead last in growth rate: Iceland - a country ranked 3rd in overall broadband. South Korea is next to Canada at the bottom of growth and near the top on penetration per 100 inhabitants. You can find the tables on Michael Geist's blog. Don't run out to get sack-cloth and ashes too quickly.
There is a fundamental problem with the OECD stats in any case. Unfortunately, the OECD measures broadband in terms of penetration per 100 inhabitants. A better indicator would likely be measurements per 100 households, which would normalize against differences in household size. After all, broadband connectivity is a family purchase, not that of individual members. A quick look using household numbers I found would see some significant shifts in OECD rankings. Differences in average household size will yield measurable changes in ranking countries that have populations with household access to broadband.
I'd like to hear if someone has looked at those stats.
Let's address the comment [and often heard lament] that there are 'hundreds of thousands of people in Canada with no hope of any broadband access.' Where are they?
Thanks to companies like Barrett Xplore, there are no households in Canada beyond the reach of broadband service. Let's explode that myth once and for all. Canadians have universal access to broadband internet.
John Maduri of Barrett Xplore will be speaking on June 11 on a panel looking at wireless options for broadband at The 2007 Canadian Telecom Summit.
Update: [April 26, 10:25 am]
I found some additional household size data - although it is from mixed years. When I plug that table into the OECD stats for broadband per 100 inhabitants, it yields some interesting information. South Korea's numbers appear to make no sense - with 4.4 persons per household, South Korea appears to have 128% penetration of broadband - more than one broadband connection per home. Canada moves from number 9 to number 8, Australia jumps into 4th place, Denmark falls to 5th (from first) and Sweden drops out of the top 10 and falls behind the US.
Technorati Tags:
OECD, broadband, cable, DSL, Barrett Xplore, Canadian Telecom Summit
The OECD itself states that "Canada continues to lead the G7 group of industrialized countries in broadband penetration." While he acknowledges this triumph, somehow, Professor Geist sees a disturbing trend:
Needless to say, this is a pretty abysmal showing. Far from being an Internet leader, Canada is rapidly becoming a second tier country in terms of broadband penetration with limited broadband competition, hundreds of thousands of people with no hope of any broadband accessAbysmal? As in hopelessly bad?
How do we go from leading the G7 to 'becoming a second tier country'? Do you think that we have a little bit of over-reaction? Maybe I'm just a 'glass is half full' kind of guy. Of course, in this case, I think the glass is more than half full.
Professor Geist expresses concern that Canada is near the bottom (second last, in fact) in terms of growth rates for broadband penetration. In reality, a declining rate of growth is a normal behaviour in a market approaching saturation. Look at who is dead last in growth rate: Iceland - a country ranked 3rd in overall broadband. South Korea is next to Canada at the bottom of growth and near the top on penetration per 100 inhabitants. You can find the tables on Michael Geist's blog. Don't run out to get sack-cloth and ashes too quickly.
There is a fundamental problem with the OECD stats in any case. Unfortunately, the OECD measures broadband in terms of penetration per 100 inhabitants. A better indicator would likely be measurements per 100 households, which would normalize against differences in household size. After all, broadband connectivity is a family purchase, not that of individual members. A quick look using household numbers I found would see some significant shifts in OECD rankings. Differences in average household size will yield measurable changes in ranking countries that have populations with household access to broadband.
I'd like to hear if someone has looked at those stats.
Let's address the comment [and often heard lament] that there are 'hundreds of thousands of people in Canada with no hope of any broadband access.' Where are they?
Thanks to companies like Barrett Xplore, there are no households in Canada beyond the reach of broadband service. Let's explode that myth once and for all. Canadians have universal access to broadband internet.
John Maduri of Barrett Xplore will be speaking on June 11 on a panel looking at wireless options for broadband at The 2007 Canadian Telecom Summit.
Update: [April 26, 10:25 am]
I found some additional household size data - although it is from mixed years. When I plug that table into the OECD stats for broadband per 100 inhabitants, it yields some interesting information. South Korea's numbers appear to make no sense - with 4.4 persons per household, South Korea appears to have 128% penetration of broadband - more than one broadband connection per home. Canada moves from number 9 to number 8, Australia jumps into 4th place, Denmark falls to 5th (from first) and Sweden drops out of the top 10 and falls behind the US.
Technorati Tags:
OECD, broadband, cable, DSL, Barrett Xplore, Canadian Telecom Summit
Posted by Mark Goldberg @ 4/26/2007 06:56:00 AM 
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Mark,
This isn't about whether the glass is half, but about a country that was once second in the world, now ranked ninth and falling. It is about a country whose growth rate is far below countries such as the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Denmark that already have higher penetration rates than Canada (no saturation there apparently). Sure we can point to being the best in the G7, yet based on current trends that too will change next year when France and possibly the UK pass us.
As for the notion that there is universal broadband access, please get out the city to the hundreds of communities without access and explain your position to them. For example, go to Pembroke, where I was earlier this week, and tell the teacher at a local school how the fact that his daughter finds the dialup unusable in their home (they don't have access to broadband) is a myth.
MG
This isn't about whether the glass is half, but about a country that was once second in the world, now ranked ninth and falling. It is about a country whose growth rate is far below countries such as the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Denmark that already have higher penetration rates than Canada (no saturation there apparently). Sure we can point to being the best in the G7, yet based on current trends that too will change next year when France and possibly the UK pass us.
As for the notion that there is universal broadband access, please get out the city to the hundreds of communities without access and explain your position to them. For example, go to Pembroke, where I was earlier this week, and tell the teacher at a local school how the fact that his daughter finds the dialup unusable in their home (they don't have access to broadband) is a myth.
MG
Posted by 
: 8:49 AM, April 26, 2007
: 8:49 AM, April 26, 2007
Perhaps I wasn't clear enough... even in Pembroke, Barrett Xplore has broadband options: http://www.xplornet.com/
Posted by 
Mark Goldberg : 9:18 AM, April 26, 2007
Mark Goldberg : 9:18 AM, April 26, 2007
Having options and having reasonable options are two different things. My area in rural Ottawa apparently has satellite available from Barrett Xplore, but is paying $55 for half-meg satellite much better than dialup? Alternatively I could use their 1.5M service at $135 per month. Not to mention the setup fees that may or may not be involved. For someone who works in the computer industry or who generates income from their Internet service then this may be reasonable. But there are lots of families that can't afford this pricing, especially if the setup fees are potentially hundreds of dollars.
Being realistic, satellite service is generally "available everywhere". It obviously has a much easier time spreading it's coverage than "copper based" services because of the nature of the technology. But is it really fair to just say that Canada must have 100% broadband coverage because Barrett Xplore offers satellite service? If so, then the media can feel free to stop fueling the competition to see which country has the best coverage.
At first glance it appears that service similar to Rogers from Barrett Xplore would be $135 per month with a first month cost of $450 and a 3 year obligation. The 3 year contract can be removed for an extra $250 in the first month. There is also an option to get slightly reduced speeds for $90 per month but this still requires a $450 payment up front and a 3 year contract. I don't know who pays your bills but that ain't so great for some people. Beyond this, there are a number of other questions such as "Do they block ports?" or "Do they offer a news server?" that may make the service better or worse when compared to other providers.
Having said that, I believe that Michael's example is an important one. If the teacher in Pembroke has the same service options I do, they simply may not be able to pay that kind of money for service. So even if it is "available" in their area it may still be "unattainable" for them. In order for him to just get the service he has to agree to a $5175 cost over 3 years (that likely does not include GST). In this case the myth of broadband not being available to everyone might not be quite ready to explode.
Frankly, these kinds of things may be exactly what is keeping us from being viewed as techno-leaders. If Canada really cares about G7 lists we may want to look at a little less theory and a little more practical.
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Being realistic, satellite service is generally "available everywhere". It obviously has a much easier time spreading it's coverage than "copper based" services because of the nature of the technology. But is it really fair to just say that Canada must have 100% broadband coverage because Barrett Xplore offers satellite service? If so, then the media can feel free to stop fueling the competition to see which country has the best coverage.
At first glance it appears that service similar to Rogers from Barrett Xplore would be $135 per month with a first month cost of $450 and a 3 year obligation. The 3 year contract can be removed for an extra $250 in the first month. There is also an option to get slightly reduced speeds for $90 per month but this still requires a $450 payment up front and a 3 year contract. I don't know who pays your bills but that ain't so great for some people. Beyond this, there are a number of other questions such as "Do they block ports?" or "Do they offer a news server?" that may make the service better or worse when compared to other providers.
Having said that, I believe that Michael's example is an important one. If the teacher in Pembroke has the same service options I do, they simply may not be able to pay that kind of money for service. So even if it is "available" in their area it may still be "unattainable" for them. In order for him to just get the service he has to agree to a $5175 cost over 3 years (that likely does not include GST). In this case the myth of broadband not being available to everyone might not be quite ready to explode.
Frankly, these kinds of things may be exactly what is keeping us from being viewed as techno-leaders. If Canada really cares about G7 lists we may want to look at a little less theory and a little more practical.
Posted by : 1:40 PM, April 30, 2007
: 1:40 PM, April 30, 2007 << Home
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